Generative AI Expected to Cause 2.4 million Job Losses in the US by 2030

When we reported content writers who were walking dogs on New York streets, many readers felt we were overhyped with AI. Forrester’s 2023 Generative AI Jobs Impact Forecast revealed that by 2030 generative AI will replace 2.4 million jobs.  The survey had earlier pointed out that by the end of 2023, generative AI will result in 90,000 job losses. Even the current report will be met with ridicule and doubts. Nonetheless, Generative AI is disrupting the job market at an accelerating rate.

If you had an opportunity to read Gizmodo’s disclaimer – the owner of G/O Media, it states “Contents have been automatically translated from the original. Due to the nuances of machine translation, there can be slight differences.” In as much as the company reported that only four employees were directly impacted by the changes, the reality is that editors of the Spanish Language media outlet have lost their sole source of daily bread.

Many employees who have faced the harvesters’ sickle can testify that it’s no longer time to bury their heads in the sand but look at the reality in the face and start working out solutions for their next course of life.

Generative AI Work Disruption Stats

Here are some of the highlights from the new research report:

1. Generative AI will result in 0.6% yearly job losses in the US
2. By 2030, generative AI will replace 4.9% of US jobs
3. 30% job loss due to automation by 2030 will be attributed to generative AI
4. Jobs lost due to automation will increase from 9.3% in 2023 to 30.4% by 2030.
5. The growth in jobs lost due to generative AI will reach 2.4 million by 2030
6. Workers with low levels of education such as a high school diploma will experience 2.7% influence from generative AI
7. More educated workers will expect between 16 and 20 percent of AI influence

The Forrester survey is a little different from McKinsey’s prediction regarding the impact of generative AI in work automation which is estimated to be 30% by 2030 in the US. Out of this, generative IA will only contribute 8% to automation adoption.

Generative AI Breaking its Promises

In its promise to the US citizens, generative AI was expected to yield greater benefits in terms of productivity and economic growth. For instance, a survey showed that labor productivity increase from generative AI was expected to be between 0.5 and 0.9 percent by 2030. In the joint Stanford and MIT study, the prospects were even higher at 14% due to the use of chatbots. The productivity was to reach 7% at the global level. Nothing could be more promising than these for the already struggling economies!

So, what’s happening…

GMG Union which is represented by the WGA East made a statement on the Gizmodo’s layoff pointing out a change of face and word in what seems to be the case with generative AI.

“Unfortunately, this move to eliminate the Espanol team represents yet another broken promise from G/O Media CEO Jim Spanfeller and Editorial Director Merill Brown, who have repeatedly said that the company’s AI experiments were intended to supplement human writing, not replace it.”

In Sum…

With the anticipation of huge worker displacements, generative AI and automation seem to have broken their promise of complementing employees for greater productivity. We may not have the certainty about the statistical predictions by the research experts.

However, one we know for sure is that Artificial Intelligence especially generative AI is having both negative and positive impacts on the job market. Thus far, AI has proved to cause more pain than gains in the labor market with millions poised to lose their sources of daily bread. When those Gizmodo editors get an opportunity to write about generative AI, the wall paintings will sound like “Generative AI we loved you, but we loved our jobs more!”